Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro Turns Scandal Into Poll Gains
The one-point gap falls within the poll’s two-point margin of error, and Lula also leads Flávio Bolsonaro 40% to 37% in the first round.
- On Wednesday, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey of 5,015 voters revealed President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro remain statistically tied, with the incumbent holding a narrow lead within the poll's 1 percentage point margin of error.
- Brazil's first round of voting occurs on October 4, 2026, where candidates must secure more than 50% of valid votes to be elected outright; otherwise, the top two frontrunners advance to an October 25 runoff.
- The survey found Lula leading 45.8% to 43.4% in a first-round scenario, while a simulated runoff shows an effectively tied race with Lula at 47.7% and Bolsonaro at 47.4%.
- A simmering crisis involving the Supreme Federal Court has reinforced voter distrust, potentially complicating Lula's reelection bid as political analysts say the institutional crisis has hit his campaign harder.
- Amid economic unease, the government recently raised Bolsa Fam welfare payments by 15%, a move that has fueled campaign debate as both candidates prioritize turnout before the October 4 election.
127 Articles
127 Articles
El Periódico
Within 10 days of the first turn of the Brazilian elections, the latest poll by the consultant Datafolha shows that the polarization between the main candidates, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and the ultra-right senator, Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula has an intention of voting of 40%, four points more than the son of ex-mandatario Jair Bolsonaro, who serves in his house in Brasilia the sentence for attempted coup d’état. However, in the second t…
Nine days from the vote, neither Brazilian front-runner comes close to 50%
Neither of Brazil's two leading presidential candidates is approaching the threshold needed to win outright on October 4, according to the latest Datafolha poll, which puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on 40% of voting intentions and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on 36%.
A close race in Brazil, with Lula maintaining a narrow two-point lead over Flavio Bolsonaro. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is still two percentage points ahead of his main rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, according to a new Datafolha poll released Thursday. 47% for Lula, 45% for Bolsonaro In the event of a second round of presidential elections in October, Lula has 47% support, while Flavio Bolsonaro is behind with 45%.
Rio de Janeiro, Sep 24 (EFE).- President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, favorites in the presidential elections of October 4 in Brazil, remain in technical tie for the first round ten days of the elections, according to the latest poll of the firm Datafolha released on Thursday. [...] The entry Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro remain in technical tie for the first round in Brazil was first published in HolaNews.
According to the projection for a possible second round, the leader of the Workers' Party would get 47.7 percent support, compared to 47.3 percent of Bolsonaro.
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