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CA projected to lose congressional seats after 2030 due to slow population growth, data shows

California’s population decline due to slowed growth and net domestic migration will reduce its House seats from 52 to 48 after the 2030 Census, experts say.

  • Thursday, January 30, 2026, analysts projected California will lose four seats after the 2030 Census, with estimates ranging from three to four seats .
  • California's population data show it lost 229,077 people to net domestic migration between July 2024 and July 2025, linked to declining international arrivals, according to Christine Hartley.
  • The Constitution mandates reapportionment and the U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates show a 1.8 million, or 0.5%, population rise from July 1, 2024–July 1, 2025.
  • Amid partisan debate, officials pointed to 'redistricting retribution' as Newsom warned of political pushback if Texas GOP redraws maps, linked to population shifts and slow growth.
  • Across the country, census figures show all four census regions and every state except Montana and West Virginia saw growth slow or decline accelerate, with the 2024 U.S. population at 340 million.
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Times Union broke the news in Albany, United States on Tuesday, January 27, 2026.
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