CA projected to lose congressional seats after 2030 due to slow population growth, data shows
California’s population decline due to slowed growth and net domestic migration will reduce its House seats from 52 to 48 after the 2030 Census, experts say.
- Thursday, January 30, 2026, analysts projected California will lose four seats after the 2030 Census, with estimates ranging from three to four seats .
- California's population data show it lost 229,077 people to net domestic migration between July 2024 and July 2025, linked to declining international arrivals, according to Christine Hartley.
- The Constitution mandates reapportionment and the U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates show a 1.8 million, or 0.5%, population rise from July 1, 2024–July 1, 2025.
- Amid partisan debate, officials pointed to 'redistricting retribution' as Newsom warned of political pushback if Texas GOP redraws maps, linked to population shifts and slow growth.
- Across the country, census figures show all four census regions and every state except Montana and West Virginia saw growth slow or decline accelerate, with the 2024 U.S. population at 340 million.
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CA projected to lose congressional seats after 2030 due to slow population growth, data shows
California's growth remains the slowest of the major U.S. states, according to the latest Census estimates, because representation in Congress is a "zero-sum" game. Faster growth in states like Texas and Florida puts California at high risk of losing congressional seats after the 2030 Census.
California Will Lose at Least Two Seats in Congress After 2030
Despite a return to positive population growth, California will lose at least two (-2), and is at high risk of losing three (-3) seats in Congress, going from 52 to 49 after the census in 2030, and fourth overall since 2020. Here is where and why. According to the American Redistricting Project and the latest U.S. Census estimates for 2024, California will lose three seats, for 2025 four seats after 2030. This follows previous estimates by the B…
Red states stand to gain more political power over immigration shift
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