Chance of Breaking the Ceiling of the Inflation Target in 2026 Is 90%, Evaluation BC
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6 Articles
The Central Bank (CB) raised the probability of inflation exceeding the upper limit of the target tolerance range from 79% to 90% in the last quarter of this year. The review is contained in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) released on Thursday, the first document in which the monetary authority details its projections after the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduced the Selic rate to 13.75% per year at the meeting on 15 and 16th.
The Central Bank raised to 90% the chance of inflation bursting the roof of the target in 2026, signaling a worsening in the country's economic scenario.
Central Bank does not see at the moment relevant shift from high oil to inflation, but projects IPCA of 5.2% in 2026, above the ceiling of the target. The report also reduces the projection of GDP growth to 1.8%, below the estimate of the Ministry of the Farm. For the worker, the risk is in the room
September 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects HICP by 5.2% in the year and reduces GDP estimate from 2.0% to 1.8%
CNN Brasil
Portal GMC OnlineTarget was breached for the first time in July of last year, when the IBGE reported that the IPCA closed June with discharge of 5.35% in 12 months - above the target ceiling, of 4.50%
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