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Bank of Canada says new US tariffs could slash fourth quarter growth
Governor Tiff Macklem said new U.S. tariffs could halve growth and delay investment and hiring as inflation risks rise from higher oil prices.
On Monday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned that new US tariffs could slash Canada's fourth-quarter growth to below 1%, reflecting fresh uncertainty threatening business investment and hiring.
Canada's economy rebounded in the second quarter with 3.3% annualized growth, as businesses adjusted to 18 months of US tariffs by diversifying supply chains and sourcing strategies.
Annual inflation remains at 3%, above the bank's 2% target, and Macklem noted inflation could increase if oil prices stay near $100 a barrel due to Middle East conflict.
The latest tariff escalation could cause companies to delay hiring and investment decisions, Macklem said, creating pressure on the bank's policy planning amid conflicting economic signals.
Balancing interest rate policy remains complex; Macklem stated, "We don't want to raise our policy rate and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained. But nor do we want to be too slow to respond.