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National Hurricane Center Tracking a New Disturbance in the Atlantic
Forecasters say warm waters could support slow development, but model disagreement and El Niño-related wind shear keep the disturbance unlikely to threaten the U.S.
On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center began monitoring a disorganized area of stormy weather in the subtropical Atlantic, assigning it a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days.
Powerful El Nino conditions have kept the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season record-quiet, with just five named storms and no hurricanes, marking the first time since the satellite era began that September arrived without a hurricane.
Computer models remain split on whether the system will organize into a named storm, which would be Fay, though forecasters expect conditions to become more favorable for development by mid-to-late week.
Little indication exists that the system will threaten the United States, as exiting troughs are expected to steer potential development away from the East Coast, leaving Bermuda as the only possible land-related impact.
Forecasters continue watching other regions, including the Caribbean Sea and areas off Africa, for potential tropical cyclone activity as the Atlantic hurricane season continues through November.