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Africa’s clean energy projects face financing barrier from credit rating rules
Experts say the sovereign ceiling inflates borrowing costs and leaves only Botswana and Mauritius with investment-grade ratings.
The 'sovereign ceiling' rule stalls clean energy projects across Africa by tying project credit ratings to a nation's sovereign rating, causing investors to perceive commercially viable operations as risky, experts say.
Nearly 600 million people across Africa still lack access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency, while subjective credit assessments cost African countries up to $74.5 billion annually in lost investment.
Kenya's Menengai Geothermal, Zambia's IFC-led Solar Scaling, and Nigeria's Solar IPP pipeline struggled for funding as investors raised concerns over creditworthiness despite projects having strong fundamentals and predictable cash flows.
Dr. Sibusisi Nkomo of the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership said the ceiling functions as a "binding constraint," while Maria Nkhonjera of the Stockholm Environment Institute cited "risk mispricing" as a major factor.
Of Africa's 54 countries, only Botswana and Mauritius currently hold investment-grade sovereign ratings, prompting analysts to suggest multilateral institutions like Afreximbank could offer guarantees to help separate projects from sovereign risk.