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‘100% to 99% chance’ El Niño lasts 6 months: What does that mean for you?

Summary by The Hill
El Niño is here, growing stronger by the day, and getting ready for a long stay. Climate models indicate the phenomenon is nearly certain to last not just through this fall and winter, but also into spring of 2027.

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Financial institutions and consultancies increased from 0.4 percentage point to 0.5 point the expected impact of El Niño on the Broad Consumer Price Index (HICP) of 2027. Median estimates are contained in the Pre-Copom Questionnaire (QPC), released on Wednesday (23) and which subsidizes the decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) for the definition of the Selic rate. The document was sent on September 4 to the respondents, who were ab…

·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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WMO confirms a very strong El Niño peak at the end of 2026 and almost 100% probability of persisting until February 2027. La entrada El Niño 2027: WMO confirms a very strong episode with peak at the end of 2026 aparece primero en Merca2.

Meteorologists predict that this El Niño event will almost certainly continue into the spring of 2027. On September 14, 2026, in Dana Point, California, workers used heavy machinery to move boulders to protect damaged beachfront homes as a Pacific wave washed ashore. Due to El Niño, Hurricane Marie generated turbulent waves offshore, causing damage to approximately ten properties in the area. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

·New York, United States
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Economists consulted by the Central Bank on the eve of the last meeting of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) expect that the El Niño climate phenomenon will increase inflation in Brazil by 0.5 percentage point in 2027. The result of the questionnaire was released by the monetary authority on Wednesday (23). Read more (09/23/2026

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Bias Distribution

  • 67% of the sources are Center
67% Center

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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Wednesday, September 23, 2026.
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